1. Panama has two major seaports – Balboa and Colon (also the world’s second largest free trade zone), Tocumen International Airport and the Panama Canal. 10,000 ships pass through the canal every year. Important communication cables are laid along it.

2. About 6% of the world’s maritime trade passes through the Panama Canal, which saves the maritime transport sector 8,000 nautical miles and 22 days of travel between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. For over a hundred years, it has remained a vital economic and strategic hub. A ship can pass through the giant canal, 81.5 km long and 33-150 m wide, in just 8-10 hours. Panama earns about $3.5 billion a year in transit fees.

3. On November 17, 2017, China and Panama signed a Memorandum of Understanding on the Joint Construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road (China’s “One Belt, One Road” project).

4. In 2018, China and Panama signed a free trade agreement. China has become Panama’s largest trading partner, the largest supplier to the Colon Free Trade Zone, and the second-largest user of the Panama Canal.

5. By the end of 2021, China’s direct investment in Panama was $1 billion.

6. China-Panama trade volume in 2021 was $11.344 billion, China’s exports were $10.180 billion, and imports were $1.164 billion.

7. China’s plans and proposals to Panama were grandiose.

China’s Major Infrastructure Projects in Panama in 2016–2021

8. 01.30.2025 US Secretary of State Marco Rubio conveyed to Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino the position of Trump: China’s presence in the canal area violates the agreement on the transfer of the Panama Canal to Panama in 1999.

9. 02.02.2025 The President of Panama stated that “the country’s government will not extend the memorandum of understanding with China on the One Belt, One Road initiative.”

10. 02.08.2025 The Chinese side expressed deep regret.

Conclusions

1. China’s expansionist project “One Belt, One Road” was publicly announced in 2013. One of the main directions of its development was Panama. But only one project was implemented. Judging by the table, after 2019, China curtailed its expansion in Panama (it did not propose new projects).

2. Panama was viewed by China as a “showcase” of its “One Belt, One Road” project for Latin American countries.

3. As can be seen from the table, there was serious resistance in Panama to the implementation of Chinese proposals and projects that had been launched. This is also indicated by the insignificant volume of direct investment from China. Most likely, from the United States.

4. China’s expansionist project “One Belt, One Road” has failed in all regions of the world. It began to wind down around 2021. Three main reasons for its collapse:

— implementation of private projects in insolvent countries (Pakistan, Ethiopia, Kyrgyzstan, …);

— resistance to private projects from other countries;

— China has no “gunboats”.

5. To wean China off the Panama Canal, it was enough to convey the “Trump position” to Panama. That is, the US wiggling its little finger.

6. The US will continue to strengthen its control over maritime trade routes. This is part of their preparation for a head-on collision with China. This is, first of all, its open weaning off the world market.

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