THE PENTAGON’S NUCLEAR IMPOTENCE

The President of Russia announced the suspension of the RLSOA-3 treaty and, as it became clear from the explanations of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, this concerns inspections of nuclear munitions. Putin also mentioned that the expiration dates of nuclear ammunition are expiring in the United States. This year, US officials have repeatedly insisted on negotiations with Russia on the situation around the current Treaty on the Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (RLSOA-3).

The fact is that Russia suspended inspections of its nuclear weapons by American specialists back in 2020 due to the pandemic. However, despite our accusations of violating the terms of RLSOA-3, the Americans really want further cooperation.

At the beginning of February, at the site of the American Arms Control Association, where Russian experts were present via video link, the American side called for the immediate start of negotiations on the new RLSOA-4 treaty, since the previous one expires in 2026. Of course, the pacifism of the Americans has nothing to do with it, they are afraid of a strong lag in the nuclear arms race, if it does begin.

Mass production of nuclear warheads in the United States was suspended in 1989

Then the FBI descended on the Rocky Flats plant in Colorado. Leaks and contamination by radioactive materials of the nearby territory at this plant were recorded back in the 1960s, including a large fire, the elimination of the consequences of which took two years. Due to violations at the plant, chromic acid got into the sanitary water reservoir of the city in 1989. The FBI launched its own investigation, which ended in 1992 with the admission of the Rockwell company operator guilty of 10 environmental crimes and the largest fine at that time for environmental crimes of $18.5 million.

In the same year, the plant was closed, the scale of pollution was so huge that it was necessary to demolish more than 800 buildings, move more than 21 tons of radioactive materials, remove more than 1.3 million cubic meters of waste and recycle more than 72 million liters of water. The cleaning process was completed only in 2005, at a cost of $7 billion, turning the former territory of the plant into a wildlife sanctuary.

At the moment, the United States has only one laboratory left in Los Alamos, where it is possible to manipulate nuclear warheads. From 2007 to 2011, a total of 29 upgrades of nuclear warheads for missiles launched from submarines were carried out there, and since 2013, all work has been suspended due to non-compliance with the rules for working with radioactive materials.

URANIUM-235 IS THE ACHILLES’ HEEL OF THE USA

In 2021, the work was resumed and in June of the same year, the National Nuclear Safety Administration (NNSA) announced that it had successfully completed the first modernization of warheads for missiles carried by submarines, although a year late and several hundred million dollars over budget.

The essence of the modernization was that a new electronic fuse, fuse and a high-explosive substance for activating the charge were installed for the 1988 nuclear charge. According to NASA estimates, the total cost of the modernization program will amount to $2.8 billion until 2026.

The number of charges subject to modernization is not specified in open sources. However, it was stipulated that the modernization would affect the entire nuclear triad, so in 2022 the modernization of aerial bombs was to be carried out, in 2025 the modernization of nuclear warheads for cruise missiles is planned, and in 2030 – for mine-based intercontinental missiles.

According to the bulletin of atomic scientists, there are about 3,800 nuclear warheads in the United States, whose age ranges from 30 to 40 years. American scientists have repeatedly conducted studies on the durability of existing nuclear weapons. In 2003, after the conducted research, NASA estimated the minimum service life of nuclear charges for 45 years from the date of manufacture. A 2012 article by the Livermore National Laboratory indicated that a plutonium charge can retain its combat properties for 150 years. However, these conclusions were not considered final and the NNSA created a ten-year research program in 2020 to establish the aging nature of plutonium nuclear warheads.

In 2019, at the initiative of the administration of US President Donald Trump, NNSA was instructed to resume the production of nuclear weapons up to 80 pieces by 2030. At that time, the organization’s press release stated that it would restore such production “due to the aging of plutonium charges and the need to modernize the nuclear arsenal, since for almost three decades the United States had not been able to produce warheads in quantities necessary for the accumulation of nuclear weapons.”

In a 2019 report by the Institute for Defense Analysis, a nonprofit organization that manages several federally funded research and development bureaus, these NNSA plans were initially called unfeasible. The actual completion of such a project would require much more money and time.

The first new location for the production of nuclear weapons was chosen unfinished MOX fuel plant in Savannah River, South Carolina. This plant has been under construction since 2007, as part of the Russian-American agreement on the disposal of plutonium, but the $4.8 billion project was stopped in 2018 because it required an additional $13 billion and was 32 years behind schedule. Although according to the plan, the plant was 70% ready, but it would take from $30 to $50 billion to complete construction, correct the identified design flaws and maintain functionality, as it turned out at a meeting of the subcommittee on strategic forces of the US Congress. It should be noted here that Russia built such a plant with a BN-800 reactor for MOX fuel in Zheleznogorsk in 5 years, the launch was carried out in 2015.

The second plant for the production of nuclear weapons will be an expanded part of the existing laboratory in Los Alamos. However, new buildings will require additional seismic protection, as it turned out, this area is tectonically unstable. The builders of the first top-secret nuclear laboratory in the United States did not take into account this important point.

The same American Arms Control Association in June 2020 indicated that the expansion of the laboratory in Los Alamos is not the best option, since various violations of the safety of handling radioactive materials were recorded there regularly. So in the radiological laboratory, built in 2010 for one billion dollars, in 2019 there was a leak associated with a structural flaw in the pipeline system. Of course, this could be considered a joke, but it is indicated that the laboratory lacks qualified personnel “who would know how to handle plutonium so that it does not accidentally gain critical mass and start an uncontrolled chain reaction.”

Initially, NASA was supposed to develop a detailed cost estimate and schedule for the production of new nuclear weapons as early as September 2025, with the launch of an experimental production line in 2024. By 2026, at least 30 nuclear charges per year were to be produced in Los Alamos, and in Savannah-​​​River – at least 50 by 2036.

However, in January 2023, the State Accountability Office, estimating the cost of the plants at $ 30 billion, reported that the NNSA does not meet the deadlines and the project estimate is constantly increasing. On February 8, US Deputy Secretary of Energy responsible for nuclear Safety Jill Ruby admitted that plans for the production of new nuclear weapons by 2030 are unattainable. “New production facilities and innovations are needed as we replace more and more components,” she said.

On February 14, Jill Hruby, speaking as a representative of NASA at the annual nuclear deterrence summit, announced the difficult nuclear situation in the world in connection with Russia’s launch of its own in Ukraine. Therefore, the current moment requires the United States to be active and able to adapt to rapidly changing circumstances. It should also be taken into account that China is rapidly developing its nuclear program and is going to increase the number of nuclear charges from 400, at the moment, to 1,500 units by 2035.

However, the industry is experiencing difficulties, as the focus of NNSA has shifted from production only to maintenance of the nuclear arsenal “many of our production facilities have atrophied, become obsolete or completely disappeared over the past thirty years“, said Jill Hruby. “The current international situation and the growing age of our nuclear weapons stocks make the situation unstable.”

In the past, the United States expanded nuclear infrastructure to the maximum, and when the Cold War ended, “there were large and old buildings, a polluted environment and the problem of resuming production from scratch of critical elements such as plutonium nuclear charges.” – Jill Hruby explained.

This process is associated with serious problems, to which the NNSA official attributed the shortage of labor. In 2022, staff layoffs exceeded the usual figure by 10%. About 16% of NNSA employees are eligible to retire now, and this number is expected to grow to about 36% by the middle of the decade. “The departure of experienced senior employees, some of whom held several positions at the enterprise at once, means the loss of institutional memory, technical skills and leadership abilities,” she said. In addition, problems with supply chains and increased inflation have already led to disruption of the schedule and increased costs for ongoing infrastructure projects.

Jill Hruby reported that over the past two years, for the first time, it was possible to modernize a nuclear warhead for a sea-based missile and an air bomb, and both programs are proceeding in accordance with the schedule of the Ministry of Defense. Developments are continuing on options for upgrading a nuclear warhead for cruise missiles, and for intercontinental ballistic missiles, the modernization project is at an early design stage.

RUSSIA HAS A CONTROLLING STAKE IN NUCLEAR ENERGY

It is quite obvious that now the United States is in a rather difficult situation, although not critical

According to the bulletin of American atomic scientists “US Nuclear Forces – 2020”, their arsenal contained about 5,800 warheads. Of these, 1,750 were on combat duty, 2,050 were held in reserve by the Pentagon, and approximately 2,000 were decommissioned. However, there are other data, so at the end of 2019, Peter Fanta, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear Affairs, said that America’s nuclear arsenal is just under 4,000 warheads.

Nevertheless, according to the bulletin of atomic scientists, 3,800 American nuclear warheads were produced from 30 to 40 years ago, and the NNSA set the minimum service life of nuclear charges at 45 years. Of course, they are currently working on the issue of extending the service life, however, if they had full confidence in success, they would not have created a ten-year research program on this issue.

It turns out that in the next few years, a significant part of the US nuclear arsenal may not be combat-ready, and that is why NNSA wants to build plants for the production of new nuclear charges, but it is recognized that they will have to do this “from scratch”, even in conditions of a decrease in the qualifications of the workforce. Given the skepticism in such plans even among American experts and the unsuccessful attempt to build a plant for MOX fuel, we can say that the United States is not ready for a new nuclear arms race, if one begins.

That is why the American Arms Control Association insists so stubbornly on negotiations with Russia on the RLSOA-4 treaty, where restrictions and inspections would be extended not only to nuclear charges on combat duty of strategic forces, but also to tactical nuclear ammunition and charges that are in storage.