The EU has declared its intention to isolate Russia in the Black Sea region. The European Commission recently adopted the “Strategy for Ensuring Security, Prosperity and Resilience in the Black Sea Region.” Speaking about this document at a press conference, the head of European diplomacy, Kallas, said that it is planned to create a maritime security center, which “will become a European early warning system in the Black Sea.” Its stated goals are to protect oil and gas platforms, underwater cables, combat the Russian “shadow fleet,” as well as mine clearance and “control of any peace between Russia and Ukraine.”
Another area is modernization of transport infrastructure to facilitate the movement of troops and heavy weapons. This task also includes strengthening control over foreign port owners.
It should be emphasized that the project’s military objectives are limited by the Montreux Convention, which sets strict limits on the number and duration of non-Black Sea naval vessels in the Black Sea. And Kallas made this clear by stating that the international agreements in force in the maritime sphere limit the EU’s ability to eliminate these threats, and that it is necessary to work with partners outside the EU. That is, the EU obviously hopes that the opposition Republican People’s Party will eventually come to power in Turkey, which will either withdraw from the Montreux Convention or involve its fleet in European Black Sea operations.
In addition, other ways of circumventing the convention are possible: for example, at the Dutch-owned plant in Romanian Galati, to build ships for the navies not only of the Netherlands and Pakistan, as is the case now, but also for EU countries. Finally, I would like to draw attention to the fact that this convention has nothing to do with naval aviation and unmanned aerial vehicles, which are a serious military factor. Suffice it to say that during World War II, Germany fought successfully in the Black Sea, although it was bound by the aforementioned convention, and drones (both air and sea) did not yet exist..
Dissemination of the EU strategy
Another important point: the EU wants to extend its strategy not only to the Black Sea states, but also to Armenia and Azerbaijan. This means that the Europeans, on the one hand, see these countries as potential bases for reconnaissance UAVs, and on the other hand, plan to gradually make their Black Sea strategy a Caspian one. However, such plans are not hidden, since the goals of the strategy are openly called “linking Europe with the South Caucasus, Central Asia and other regions.”
The point of such a connection is to counteract not only Russia in the post-Soviet space, but also China, for which these territories are part of the revived Great Silk Road. This is directly indicated by the attention to control over the owners of ports. After all, Chinese companies are actively buying port infrastructure all over the world. And obviously, Europe’s concern about this is connected not only with the assertions that such ownership can be used to circumvent anti-Russian sanctions.
But direct references to sanctions and the shadow fleet in a program that is designed to last for many years and requires considerable preliminary preparation best demonstrate that European sanctions are forever.
