The proposed topic of the lecture – “Geopolitical conflicts in the post-Soviet space” – is undoubtedly difficult for me as a person who has never been specifically engaged in political science. However, given that I am not often (rather the opposite) invited to share my thoughts in such representative state institutions, after some doubts, yet decided to try to say something on a given topic.
The presentation of the lecture is structured as follows:
1. My understanding of the geopolitical situation in the world and in the country, taking into account the impact of global trends on the development of political and military-political crises in the post-Soviet space and in Russia. Strategic and tactical goals of the USA and the so-called “new world order” headed by them on the territory of Eurasia.
2. Forecast aggravation of the confrontation between Russia and the West in the post-Soviet space, and primarily in Ukraine, in the framework of the West launched a program of “reformatting” of this space with its further fragmentation and deprivation of the remnants of sovereignty and independence.
3. Tasks, strategy and tactics of the Russian Federation in the struggle for its own self-preservation and sovereignty in the conditions of the West’s actual refusal from peaceful coexistence within the existing realities.
I warn you in advance that everything I have to say further reflects only my own point of view and does not claim to be “the ultimate truth”.
GEOPOLITICAL CONFLICTS IN THE FORMER SOVIET UNION
1. The geopolitical situation in the world and the plans of the Western bloc
First of all, I would like to point out that in my analysis of the development of geopolitical processes in the World I rely solely on facts. No statements, ideological concepts and peaceful speeches of Western politicians and political scientists are of any importance to me and are considered solely as propaganda. In modern Western politics, concepts such as honor, trust, responsibility and decency have long since lost all meaning. Turned into an empty phrase. It is impossible to say that in previous eras they were decisive, but in the post – Christian era, in which there is still a leading in the world political arena Western (conditionally Euro-Atlantic) world, cynicism and hypocrisy of its leading representatives have long crossed any boundaries. But facts are stubborn things. And their sequence indicates ,in my view, is immutable: after the defeat of the USSR in the “cold war”, political subjection and the economic plunder that emerged on its ruins the state entities, the Euro-Atlantic bloc led by the U.S. began the global conversion of the World by its own curves and exclusively for their own use are very far from considering the interests of the “performativity” areas.
– Characteristic features of such “reformatting”: absolute subordination of the entire economic and political organization of the regions to the needs of the United States. If you resist these needs-pressure and interference in internal Affairs up to a military invasion and complete defeat.
“Zakalivanie” Western world order, a clear delineation of the World into “metropolis” (US and its closest allies) and the “periphery”, where does the rest of the land. The need for such a distinction arises from the acute shortage of vital resources (primarily biological) predicted for the next decades.
“Habitat eating” by a constantly and uncontrollably growing humanity, still fragmented geographically, culturally and economically, requires an unconditional response. However, the response that seems to have been developed by the Western civilization centres to the problem is discouraging for all Nations, peoples, cultures and States that have not been fortunate enough (or Vice versa) to be in the “domain” of Euro-Atlanticism. Put simply, all of them (and Russia in particular) no alternative is proposed to disappear. To disappear as independent centers of national-cultural, economic and civilizational development, having transferred all governing functions and the rights to similar construction to the uniform world center constructed on the basis of the Anglo-Saxon civilization which has died in Bose. (Deceased because the so-called” universal values ” and other newfangled inventions of the last 2-3 decades are extremely far from any traditional national and cultural interests, including Anglo-Saxon). It is only within this “domain” that the continuous growth of consumption for a limited number of “consumers” is planned to be maintained at the expense of the “periphery”, where, on the contrary, the needs and the number of “consumers” itself should be reduced naturally. What do I mean by “natural contraction”? More about this later, but for now let’s just examine some facts.
Let’s go back to 50-70 years ago-to the era, as it is customary to say now”, “bipolar world”. In 1945, joint efforts defeated German Nazism and Japanese militarism, after which the World almost immediately moved to a confrontation between the recent allies – the “Eastern” and “Western” blocs. We will analyze the practice of both blocs – the creation of satellites around the world and their economic and political support. Let’s leave aside the USSR-the country where most of us were born, has already gone down in history. Let us turn to the United States. So: defeating Germany and Japan, the United States first subdue their economy and foreign policy, but from direct looting refrain. On the contrary, the economy of defeated opponents receives powerful financial injections within the single capitalist market and is rapidly recovering, so much so that it begins to represent competition for the industry directly to the United States. The standard of living is growing and the population of the defeated countries successfully occupies its place among the so-called “Golden billion” of people receiving the maximum social benefits on the planet.
Look further. Hot conflicts within the framework of the cold war erupt one after another. Korean war.The US and its allies support South Korea not only by military forces, but also economically.After the war, South Korea is rapidly becoming an industrial power, the standard of living of the population is growing rapidly, during the life of only one or two generations is the transition from feudal-backward Japanese raw material colony to advanced knowledge-based economy.In this series, we can recall South Vietnam, which during the military confrontation was not given a chance for political survival, but where the United States also relied not only on military assistance, but also on the economic development of its satellite. In my opinion, it is acceptable to name a number of other States and entire regions that, in the context of the struggle for hegemony between the socialist camp and the Western bloc, have developed in the most favoured nation regime and achieved impressive results in the development of the economy and social sphere, without changing, at the same time, neither the basic political structure nor the cultural and religious foundations. Israel,Saudi Arabia and other countries with natural resources or cheap labor–all of them,being under the “military-political umbrella” of the United States and its allies, in the second half of the 20th century.developed rapidly, dynamically both economically and socially.Up to 90-ies.
And then the Warsaw Pact collapsed and the USSR followed. They collapsed as a result of internal contradictions and direct betrayal of the elites,who ceased to believe and follow the dominant ideology and, in return, perceived the Western “values” in their purely materialistic-hedonistic, consumer understanding. The capitulation was so rapid and complete, and the trophies are so huge and varied that for two decades provided the “Golden age” of the United States and Europe. Continuous economic growth, accompanied by a rise in consumption, continued until 2008 and its fruits were used not only by the” winners”, but also by numerous” foreign players ” (in particular China). Due to the inclusion of huge territories and resources in the system of capitalist economy, there was a rapid transition to the post-industrial economy in the United States and a number of other leading countries of the Western world. However, it’s not about that.I want to draw your attention to the fact that the registration of the United States and NATO as the only world military and political hegemon almost immediately led to a change of approaches to the defeated. It is no secret that for all Russian and many other so-called “reformers” expectations of “unselfish help” in reformatting the economy and domestic policy on the part of the United States were almost a postulate. The most rational of them believed that if there is no help, then to counteract the entry of the former Soviet republics into the “European part of the Western domain” no one will – you just have to fulfill the conditions – and all by itself will be formed, after 5-10 years everything will be “like people”.
However, even those who are in the “domain” formally allowed (as the former CMEA countries, already included in the EU), got a “hole from the bagel”, and not the coveted social Paradise. The “free lunch” naturally led into a trap. Hungary, Bulgaria and Poland, as well as the Baltic countries, which have achieved real independence from the USSR, to immediately become satellites of the United Europe and take in its economy the place of the market and the supplier of cheap labor, still relatively “lucky”, despite the significant decline in living standards and increasing economic and social degradation. But first came under direct attack by NATO Yugoslavia-was the place where the” New Hegemon ” for the first time tested in practice updated approaches to the defeated. The country is defeated and divided, but no one is in a hurry to help her. And even the formal American ally – ” liberated “Kosovo”, stripped from the Serbs, and remained a” black hole ” on the body of Europe. Criminal ulcer. No one is going there is nothing to restore, and to restore order. Free? Well, now and live as you want, even eat each other raw materials. We have solved our problems with your help – and now we do not care about you. A clear demonstration of the famous saying about the Sheriff and the problems of the Indians.
Over Yugoslavia was followed by other victims: Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya. In each of these countries, different scenarios of military defeat were involved. Iraq, as a state, was swept away by a coalition led by the United States through a direct land-based large-scale military invasion, Afghanistan was occupied with the active support of local tribal militias, and in Libya, NATO used only aircraft and special forces, not even trying to occupy the territory. However, the consequences of the invasion were common to all three major military operations. Iraq is virtually eliminated as a single state – after a decade of American occupation, it has become one continuous battlefield for the militias of Sunni Islamists, Shiites and Kurds. On his land continue to fight the American PMCs and the Iranian “Islamic revolutionary guard Corps”. The country has a social catastrophe, chaos, famine and epidemics, mass emigration and cultural savagery. Only in the oil fields in the lower reaches of the Shatt al-Arab relative calm provided by the same PMCs. But the US before now did not care. Key resources under the control of the set, and the “problem of the surviving Indians of the Sheriff do not disturb”. Afghanistan… during the years of American occupation, the country’s economy has seen the highest growth in only one area — the production of drugs has increased tenfold. With all the consequences.
The war is not over, the confrontation between the Taliban and tribal militias will certainly lead to a resumption of hostilities immediately after the withdrawal of the main occupation forces.As the country was ravaged and destroyed, and remained at the same level – the invaders have not invested in the real sector of the economy is nothing. But the most remarkable example of the “new strategy” is Libya. The country was simply bombed in the early middle ages and forgotten about it. Now they all are fighting against all over the quickly diminishing resources, and social disaster causes the inhabitants of westernized coastal cities to shed crocodile tears for “the curse of the dictatorial regime”. Even to control the oil fields of the United States and its allies did not show interest. Why? Is it really just because of Gaddafi’s seditious thought about the introduction of the” Golden Dinar ” as an alternative to the us dollar? Maybe, but the main thing, in my opinion, is the other thing.
Let’s look at the other consequences of the prolonged “Arab spring”, which the US sponsored and morally supported everywhere. Let’s go West to East. Tunisia-the revolution was somehow calmed down, but judging by the large-scale terrorist attacks, this is a temporary phenomenon. About Libya already said. Egypt-repeated bloody clashes and two successive coups (the first by the Islamists, the US welcomed, and the second by the patriots – the military-condemned) caused serious damage to the economy, provoked bloody inter-religious conflicts and, despite the success of the national military authorities in restoring order, sowed the seeds of a split in society. And this despite the fact that the Egyptian authorities since Sadat were listed as loyal allies of the United States.
Now Syria. The country writhes in agony. Even if President Assad is able to retain power, the full control over the entire territory of the country can only dream of. Inter-ethnic and inter-religious carnage, a bloody nightmare, famine and repression are widespread and no humanitarian assistance is enough to compensate for the damage done to a small extent. The U.S. and its allies now, not even a hint of interference. What for? The goal has been reached! To anything to spend resources for finishing off the enemy who can still make the contribution to the maximum prolongation of the conflict. Let the Kurds kill the Islamists and the Islamists kill the alawites… and as many as possible. Truman at the time all formulated very clearly – in the days of World politics have not been so hypocritical to call the bombing “humanitarian operations”. Now Yemen. Another victim of the “struggle for freedom and democracy”. The war swept the whole country and approached the borders of Saudi Arabia. She is forced to react,and the US and the case is not.
From the “Arab spring” it would be logical to move directly to Ukraine, where another” revolution of dignity ” inspired by us puppets gathers its bloody victims every day. But we will leave Ukraine for later.
First, I would like to summarize all of the above and formulate some conclusions, as well as a hypothesis about the causes of the destruction of the traditional world order, urgently produced by the authorities of the “Western world”(in fact – the United States and its closest allies). The reasons stem from the message that the planet Earth is not able to provide the increasing appetites of the “Golden billion”, which due to various circumstances were hundreds of millions of “extra” mouths. These mouths need to be cut. At the same time, it is necessary to reduce by any means the excessively bred population of “raw colonies”. After all, people tend to consume resources not only in the countries of the” domain”, but also where the resources come from in the specified”domain”. If there are fewer people in the colonies, the “surplus product” will begin to arrive to the recipients in a larger volume. The main thing that worked “pipe”, and its personnel should be minimum necessary – no more. But to destroy people on their own, first, economically expensive, and secondly, is fraught with severe psychological trauma for performers from among the “Sahib”, which can lead to unwanted excesses.»
“Therefore it is necessary to create conditions when “savages” will destroy themselves. And to do this, just need to bring down and bring to complete degradation of the entire infrastructure, including power. And not to allow its recovery. Let’s Take Syria. For example, if Bashar al-Assad begins to defeat the Islamists of ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra,he will be quickly”bombed “on charges of” human rights violations”. But since now the Islamists grew–bombed over “terrorism”. The war must continue! The longer the better. Saudi Arabia has ceased to listen to the opinion of the United States and helps the “bad” Egyptian authorities to suppress the Islamist rebellion? The United States immediately restore relations with the worst enemy – Iran in the peak imagines himself the Saudis. And they look indifferently at the development of events in Yemen, demonstrating that they are now satisfied with any option.
“Divide and conquer!”- nothing new to invent is not necessary. In my opinion, the United States applies similar tactics to Israel. The country has become too committed to its own national interests and wants to follow them without regard to Washington. So far, the Jewish state does not go beyond the critical framework, but the ongoing political pressure on tel Aviv on the issue of countering Islamist militants in the Gaza Strip is very symptomatic. Apparently, the Israeli Jews fell into the category of “extra mouths” in the dwindling “Golden billion” and their turn will soon come. Two things are still saving Israel-the lack of its own natural resources and a powerful army, which the US considers as a possible tool for carrying out its own tasks in the region. It is also worth noting the reasonable restraint of the government, not hurried to pounce on bloodless neighbors.In addition to the stated reasons, the actions of the United States on the global “demolition” of the historically established world order have another purely Mercantile basis associated with excessive amounts of circulating around the world unsecured American currency and huge public debt. “How much rope does not curl all the end will be.”
A few more years, even if 10-15 years will pass before the US will have to declare a state default and” forgive “all debtors all bales of” green paper ” and all its debt obligations, which the last 2 decades paid for the real supply of resources.Further, the US will announce that” this will never happen again ” and will release new dollars and new securities.What is necessary that once deceived partners began to accept them in exchange for real values? It is necessary that the world was a permanent chaos and that against this background, the United States and its closest allies looked like a kind of “shining Avalon”-the only island of real stability and unshakable order. And then “thrown” once suppliers, reluctantly, will still be forced to direct their resources along the old route. After all, there will be no other consumers. And in order not to be deceived again, and they will move to “avalon”, not caring about all the religious, national and cultural roots. That, perhaps, ever to fall in the near subservient to the already established world of the financial elite. Thus will be naturally eliminated all real and potential centers of competition–all the money and their owners will focus in the “domain”, and “periphery”, gradually degrading, finally become a “territory of the pipe”, interspersed with carefully protected national parks,where the children of the elite and its servants will be able to admire the thickets of mangroves and age-old cedars, as well as live elephants, tigers, polar bears and crocodiles, which, otherwise really threatens the complete extermination of the hungry and feral aborigines surrounding “failed States”. About this, incidentally, almost a hundred years ago already wrote A. Tolstoy. Who has not read “the Hyperboloid of engineer Garin”, I recommend it. There Garin dreams of just such a world order.
What I want to see in the post-Soviet geopolitical space of the US and its allies? The answer follows from the previous postulates. Want to see the PIPE. On which resources flow, they are directed and controlled from the moment of production to the moment of consumption. This desire is the material cause of the conflict between Russia and the United States (with their satellites). Whatever our Russian elite of the period of the 90-ies, but it can not be called purely anti-national. In their own way, some of those who came in 1991. to the power of people understood the activity as useful for the country and its population. Blatant historical and political (economic) illiteracy put “blinders” and President Yeltsin and many of his associates. It seemed to them that in the interests of the West, Russia’s integration into its structure on the rights of a Junior, but a real partner. It was assumed that the West will not only “take”, but also something “share”, and even if you do not share anything, it is still economic prosperity and social guarantees with a high standard of living will be provided by fair trade in resources with a sharp reduction in government spending on defense, as” unnecessary ” in a long-term strategic Alliance with the former enemy. It is because of this “starry-eyed” setting (“We’re you voluntarily surrendered? Well, put us on our feet, like Germany and Japan!”) from 1991 to 1999.
Russia obediently followed the political and economic interests of the “winners”, thoughtlessly and immediately fulfilling all their requirements and recommendations. And if from the voluntary political subordination to this installation under President Vladimir Putin began a gradual departure, which came in 2014. until the complete gap, the economic it continues to this time. However, a gradual understanding of the fact that no one in the United States and the West as a whole intends to consider Russia otherwise than as a disenfranchised raw material appendage has led to a course adjustment. Russian claims, which at first sounded like timid wishes to “show respect”, came across counter claims of the conditional West. After all, as the Russian elite grew understanding of ignoring “partners” the most intimate and vital interests of the country, the”West”, on the contrary, showed more and more appetites towards the remnants of economic and political sovereignty of Russia. Let’s try to draw a diagram of what it looks like in the eyes of the international (i.e. Western) financial and industrial oligarchy of the modern Russian economic system. As “PIPE”. No further.
Through the pipe are resources controlled by the West sector of the economy. In the opposite direction there are limited investments and, mainly, a stream of cut green paper in payment of the delivered. A significant part of this flow then returns back to the West in the form of investments, deposits, etc. (in the eyes of most of our homegrown oligarchs, the West has already become an “Avalon”, where they dream to embed themselves forever). However, unfortunately, much of the money and resources remain in Russia. On it are “burdens” – population (140 million people) with his social security private large army with expensive nuclear weapons, air force and Navy), the remnants of the science, space, education, health, etc. They are, however, regularly destroy and finish, but the rates are still low. The state apparatus eats a lot, again. Industry, which did not have time or too lazy to buy and bankrupt. If all this is a “burden” to carry and keep around the “pipes” only by service personnel (for Margaret Thatcher–50 million in the former USSR) then the “return” pipe (efficiency) will increase very significantly. Perhaps–at times. And the released vital components (not only and not so much even oil and gas, and clean fresh water, forests and related bio-resources) can be directed to the benefit of the “avalon population”. Dispose of “extra natives”, by the way, you can, to pit them, for example, with the following dangerously growing enemy, falling under the” reduction ” – with China. But more on that below. And let as a result of “utilization” on ruins of Russia there will be at least hundred small “encumbrances” in the form of mini-States, all of them will be absolutely under control and at case any of them it will be possible “to lead to humility” quickly, cheap and effectively, as unfortunate Libya. Part of these mini-States, being “away from the pipe” will become deserted and feral, but who cares about the natives?
Let’s move on to Ukraine, as the most important and “hot” point on the whole territory of the post-Soviet space. What are the similarities and differences between Ukraine, for example,15 years ago defeated Yugoslavia or modern Tunisia? The similarity is in the technologies used under the direct patronage of Western (primarily American) special services. Taking advantage of the failure and total corruption of the local sub-elite (which themselves and nurtured more than two decades), to arouse popular discontent and (under the leadership of the same sub-elite) to send it to self-destruction. To provoke an acute social and economic crisis and internal instability. Goals? It is simple to primitiveness. In the economic sphere: to destroy industrial production tied to the Russian market and integrated since the Soviet times. One shot “kills two birds with one stone” – destroys competition to Western corporations in Ukraine and undermined (by the destruction of production and supply of components) high – tech (primarily military) production in Russia. In the political sphere: to put a blade in the face of an openly hostile source state and a” model “for internal turmoil to the” Russian sub – heart”.
We have to state with regret that the US has already successfully solved both problems. Ukraine as an independent state by its own oligarchy laid itself in a coffin. No matter how the events unfolded, the changes are irreversible. The country is doomed to disintegration and degradation, and the people – to depopulation and mass emigration even in that hypothetical case if the military victory in Novorossiya and even in even more fantastic option of a victory over Russia is won. Ukraine can save itself only in one way – an immediate return to a state of close friendship with the Russian Federation, and even better – with its membership or, at least, in the Union state. But so far it also sounds fantastic. And the reason for this fantastic lies not in the policy of Kiev, and in the position of Moscow. Ukraine as an instrument is only its importance for the United States and its allies. Tool “disposable” – which after use is not a pity to break or throw in the dirt. Goal–Russia. The last Eurasian country, close in culture and origin of the majority of the titular population to the European civilization, which retains the potential for its own sovereign economic and political development. And quite weakened as a result of the geopolitical collapse of the last century. In the governing structures of which there are too many people and groups, still considering the “Washington regional Committee” as the only and natural legitimate authority. All predators, when attacked, choose a weaker animal, not able to resist. Now USA and allies, unbeknownst to ourselves past the peak of their own power and, for a number of reasons (which touch in the context of this topic does not make sense) also rapidly weakening requires more than just the “victim” and a “prize” that would allow them another 5-10 years to ensure prosperity. Resources, brains, just working hands, and perhaps – even as the same “one — time tool” against the next strategic enemy-China. This requires little-not getting involved in a global war (the loss of which is still unacceptable), to ensure the re-transition of power in Russia in the hands of full puppets (candidates in such a dime a dozen).
And the role of Ukraine in this process is gradually becoming crucial
Having failed or not decided to support Yanukovych (he did everything possible for his overthrow), Moscow was faced with a choice – to reconcile with the loss or fight. The choice was, as they say,”between bad or very bad.” However, reality has surpassed all expectations. The “intermediate” option was chosen: “neither two nor one and a half”. As often happens, he was the worst of the worst. On the one hand, Russia did not passively wait until it was finally humiliated and expelled from Sevastopol, when all the partner enterprises working for its military-industrial complex were liquidated within the framework of “bringing to European standards”. But and go until the end of, too, not come around. Folk performances of the Russian population of Ukraine received the support of untimely, insufficient and indecisive. Defeat the enemy while he was extremely weak and virtually helpless, did not dare.
Events went on the usual for the United States and the West: on the path of negotiations and concessions. As they say “step forward-two steps back”. The same thing happened in the 90s in the former Yugoslavia, where the decisive and successful actions of the JNA over and over again “stopped” subsequent diplomatic agreements until the moment when the enemy became so strong that he could win a military victory. To continue the topic I will not – it is not time it was covered. I believe that you are well aware of such a recent history. In fact, Russia is involved in a heavy bloody conflict, and the fact that Russian troops are not directly involved in it directly on the territory of Donbass, does not play a decisive role. Starting with the Crimean events in the eyes of the whole world (the worldview of which, unfortunately, is formed mainly by the Western media), Russia is represented by the aggressor. And even the attempt of” honorable retreat “demonstrated by” Minsk-1 “and” Minsk-2 ” was not accepted by the enemy and was not met with understanding. Ukraine, armed with the US and NATO, is continuously preparing for war. As an example of the upcoming actions in the Ukrainian blogosphere openly discussed the operation of the Croatian army to destroy the Serbian Krajina, whose defeat was so rapid that YUNA did not have time to intervene. Why does the Kiev regime need a new escalation of hostilities? If Poroshenko came from the real interests of Ukraine and its people, then for anything. According to common sense, he would have to cry with joy, concluding the Minsk agreement, allowing him to keep the Donbass in the country and stop the suicidal war for the state. But for the United States, which managed (as they believe) to lure Russia into a strategic deadlock-trap, such a solution is impossible. They need a war and they will achieve it by all means. Even if Russia “closes its eyes” to the military destruction of new Russia, inevitably followed by an escalation in the Crimea. With that, Ukraine’s military victory over Russia for the United States is not particularly necessary, because it is unreal. Long, stupid, indecisive war, constantly and gradually expanding and more and more bloody-that’s the goal. The West will arrange even the expansion of new Russia beyond the Donbass-if only the front remained. The longer it is,the better. And will remain at the same level–too not bad.
Victory in this war, see Anglo-Saxons, not in the form of tank columns with yellow-Blakytny prapor on red Square, and by analogy with February 1917, when, tired of the protracted and futile war then Russian society more recently (in 1914) enthusiastically singing “God save the Tsar!”under the balcony of the Winter Palace, with no less enthusiasm supported inspired from the outside and led from the inner circle of the King conspiracy and rebellion, the consequences of which are well known to all of you. The only thing that now does not suit the West, so it is a complete and rapid military victory of Russia, the defeat and surrender of the anti-people and puppet Kiev regime, the liberation of new Russia, the liberation of Kiev and the conduct of Ukraine really free elections. They are afraid and try to prevent methods of “carrot and stick”. That threatening expansion of sanctions, enticing their unprofitable cancellation and return “to the European family”. Unfortunately, we can say that this time-tested tactic is still, judging by the actions, not solved by those who determine Russia’s policy in the Ukrainian direction. Although, it may be that the prospect of finally being ” outlawed “in the eyes of the international financial oligarchy of many” liberals ” in the country’s leadership is more frightening than the repetition of the catastrophe a century ago.»